Lok Sabha elections 2024: Phase 3 polling on May 7

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The third phase of the Lok Sabha elections is scheduled for May 7, during which voters in 93 constituencies across 11 states will head to the polls. Let’s delve into the key details and dynamics of this crucial phase:

1. BJP Strongholds:
   • Based on data from the 2019 elections, a majority of seats in this phase are Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strongholds. The BJP had secured 71 out of 93 Lok Sabha seats during that time, while the Congress managed to win only four. This phase includes states where the BJP has historically performed well, such as Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.
2. State-wise Breakdown:
   • Here’s a breakdown of the states and the number of constituencies voting in this phase:
     • Assam: 4 constituencies (Barpeta, Dhubri, Guwahati, Kokrajhar)
     • Bihar: 5 constituencies (Araria, Jhanjharpur, Khagaria, Madhepura, Supaul)
     • Chhattisgarh: 7 constituencies (Bilaspur, Durg, Janjgir-Champa, Korba, Raigarh, Raipur, Surguja)
     • Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu: 2 constituencies
     • Goa: 2 constituencies (North Goa, South Goa)
     • Gujarat: 26 constituencies (including Ahmedabad East, Ahmedabad West, Surat, Vadodara, and others)
     • Jammu and Kashmir: Entire union territory
     • Karnataka: 14 constituencies (including Belgaum, Bellary, Davanagere, Shimoga, and others)
     • Madhya Pradesh: 8 constituencies (including Bhopal, Guna, Gwalior, Sagar, and others)
     • Maharashtra: 11 constituencies (including Baramati, Kolhapur, Satara, Solapur, and others)
     • Uttar Pradesh: 10 constituencies (including Agra, Bareilly, Firozabad, Mainpuri, and others)
     • West Bengal: 4 constituencies (yet to be contested after Surat’s uncontested win by BJP)
3. High-Profile Contests:
   • Several prominent leaders are contesting in this phase:
     • Amit Shah from Gandhinagar
     • Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri
     • Jyotiraditya Scindia from Guna
     • Digvijay Singh from Rajgarh
     • Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Vidisha
     • Mansukh Mandaviya from Porbandar
     • Pralhad Joshi from Dharwad
     • Supriya Sule from Baramati
4. Seat Distribution:
   • The BJP, part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is contesting 81 out of 93 seats in this phase.
   • The Congress, part of the INDIA bloc, will fight in 68 seats.
   • In 2019, the NDA won 78 of the total 93 seats, while the INDIA bloc secured 12. Other parties won three seats.
5. Vote Share Challenge:
   • The BJP won 38 seats with a 50-60% vote share in the last election, 20 seats with a 60-70% vote share, and two seats with an over 70% vote share.
   • The Congress needs a significant swing in its favor to challenge the BJP’s dominance.
6. Turnout Importance:
   • Voter turnout will be crucial, especially as the first two phases saw a drop in polling by around 3 percentage points compared to 2019.